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A sweeping new offensive by the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nasrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in western Mali is rapidly reshaping the Sahel conflict, expanding both the geographic reach and economic impact of militant Islamist violence in the region, according to a new study by the Washington-based Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS).
Led by the Maçina Liberation Front (FLM), a key JNIM faction, a series of coordinated attacks on 1 July targeted key trade hubs near the Senegal and Mauritania borders — including Kayes and Nioro du Sahel — marking a shift from the group’s traditional strongholds in central Mali. These towns hold strategic and symbolic value: Kayes is vital for trade and gold production, while Nioro is a major religious center. JNIM’s strategy appears aimed at economically isolating the capital, Bamako, by severing fuel and trade routes. A subsequent social media declaration in Bambara and Fulfulde imposed blockades, banned fuel imports, and threatened transport companies. Already, over 40 fuel tankers have been destroyed, foreign mining operations attacked, and supply shortages are driving up prices.
The escalation coincides with growing political repression by Mali’s military junta, which dissolved political parties and entrenched itself in power. The junta’s rejection of regional and international security partnerships, including the withdrawal from ECOWAS and ending of UN and EU missions, has further weakened its position. JNIM now controls more territory than at any time during the 13-year conflict, and its encirclement strategy is drawing Mali’s neighbors — including Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire — into a broader regional crisis, as tens of thousands flee the violence.
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