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Rabat– Morocco’s economy is set to gain momentum in the coming years, with real GDP projected to reach 4.4% in 2025, up from 3.8% in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest Global Economic Outlook.
The IMF forecasts that growth will stabilize at 4.2% by 2026, reflecting the resilience of the Kingdom’s economy in the face of persistent challenges.
Despite this encouraging outlook, unemployment is expected to remain elevated, with rates projected at 13.3% in 2024, 13.1% in 2025, and 12.7% in 2026, highlighting ongoing labor market challenges even amid growth.
In its October report on the global economic outlook, the IMF projects worldwide growth of 3.2% in 2025, slightly down from 3.3% in 2024, with advanced economies expected to expand by around 1.5% and emerging and developing countries growing just above 4%.
Morocco’s growth forecasts surpass the regional average for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), estimated at 2.1% in 2024, 3.3% in 2025, and 3.7% in 2026. The IMF attributed Morocco’s performance to resilient domestic demand, which has helped offset the economic impact of ongoing drought conditions.
Morocco’s GDP growth is expected to be supported by the launch of new infrastructure projects and the continued implementation of structural reforms, positioning Morocco as a regional leader in economic resilience.
Other countries in the Arab region show varied trajectories. The United Arab Emirates is forecast to expand by 4%, 4.8%, and 5%, while Mauritania shows robust growth at 6.3%, 4%, and 4.3%.
In contrast, Tunisia is projected at 1.6%, 2.5%, and 2.1%, and Algeria is expected to slow down from 3.7% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2026. Morocco’s growth also compares favorably with Saudi Arabia (2%, 4%, 4%), Iraq (–0.2%, 0.5%, 3.6%), and Qatar (2.4%, 2.9%, 6.1%), while Kuwait, Oman, Egypt, and Jordan are expected to grow between 2% and 4.5%.
Morocco’s outlook aligns with trends in major emerging economies, particularly trading partners. China is projected to grow by 5%, 4.8%, and 4.2%, and India remains strong at 6.5%, 6.6%, and 6.2%. Russia, however, shows slower momentum at 4.3%, 0.6%, and 1%.
In contrast, growth among Morocco’s Western partners is more subdued, in line with the IMF’s forecast of 1.5% for advanced economies. The United States is expected to expand by 2.8%, 2%, and 2.1%, as well as the United Kingdom by 1.1%, 1.3%, and 1.3%. Within the European Union, Spain is forecast at 3.5%, 2.9%, and 2%, while France and Germany are projected at 1.1%, 0.7%, 0.9% and 0.5%, 0.2%, 0.9%, respectively.
The IMF also cautions that global economic prospects remain fragile, pointing to persistent uncertainty, rising protectionism, labor market disruptions, and mounting vulnerabilities in public finances as potential downside risks that could affect both global and regional growth.
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