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North Africa’s wheat import landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation, with Black Sea suppliers now controlling 75 percent of the market as European Union share plummets to 25 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest analysis.
The region, comprising Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco, represents 15 percent of global wheat imports. During the 2024/25 campaign, while worldwide purchases declined 10 percent, North Africa increased imports by 1 percent, demonstrating resilient demand for this vital commodity.
Russia has emerged as the dominant supplier, capturing nearly 50 percent of North African market share, with near-monopoly positions in Libya (100 percent) and Egypt (70 percent). This strategic realignment stems from competitive pricing, optimized logistics, and geopolitical tensions marginalizing European suppliers.
Morocco exemplifies this shift with explosive growth in Russian and Ukrainian imports—up 214 percent and 54 percent respectively between June 2024 and March 2025. The kingdom maintains zero customs duties through December 2025 while building strategic reserves covering six months of national consumption.
Algeria has severed its historic French wheat supply chain, with no deliveries since July 2024 due to diplomatic tensions. Russia maintains its position despite export quotas, while Ukraine tripled its Algerian exports. Tunisia witnessed 50 percent growth in Black Sea imports as French deliveries halved.
Three interconnected factors drive this regional pivot: geographical proximity reducing transport costs, national agricultural policies favoring diversification, and geopolitical realignments excluding traditional European suppliers. The USDA warns that increased global wheat availability in 2025/26 will intensify competition, transforming North Africa into a key arena for agro-commercial rivalries.
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