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African exports to the United States are projected to drop by as much as 21.5% as new U.S. tariffs take effect, according to joint research by the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), African Union Commission (AUC), and African Development Bank (AfDB).
The protectionist move, part of a broader trade policy under President Donald Trump, has sparked concern among African policymakers and economists. The most visible impact has hit South Africa, where vehicle exports to the U.S. plunged by over 80% in April and May 2025, following steep tariff hikes. The automotive sector, once bolstered by duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), now faces serious disruption.
At a recent meeting at UN headquarters, ECA Executive Secretary Claver Gatete noted that the crisis was bigger than trade volumes, stressing that “it affects industrial jobs, regional supply chains and Africa’s voice in shaping the terms of engagement.” He also highlighted the broader context of debt distress, inflation, and declining aid flows, with over half of African countries carrying public debt above 60% of GDP.
Analysts warn the tariffs could accelerate Africa’s pivot toward non-Western partners like China and deepen reliance on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). “The US tariffs make African countries seek alternatives,” said James Shikwati, director of the Inter Region Economic Network, a Nairobi-based think tank. “They encourage the strengthening of the (AfCFTA) and deepen interest in (China’s) Belt and Road Initiative,” he also noted, adding that “Africa is likely to retain a balanced approach — pursuing partnerships with both East and West.”
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