Morocco’s High Commission for Planning (HCP) expects the national economy to expand by 4.8% in 2026, supported primarily by an exceptional recovery in the agricultural sector. Economic growth is then projected to ease to 3% in 2027, based on the assumption of an average cereal harvest.
In its 2027 economic outlook, the HCP notes that Morocco’s economic performance remains closely tied to developments in agriculture. The sector is expected to be the main engine of growth in 2026, while its contribution is forecast to turn negative the following year due to the statistical base effect.
According to the report, agricultural value added is expected to increase by 19.1% in 2026, benefiting from a successful farming season and improved livestock production, before declining by 6.8% in 2027. The primary sector, which includes agriculture and fisheries, is forecast to grow by 18.1% in 2026, contributing 1.9 percentage points to overall GDP growth, before contracting by 6.3% in 2027 and reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points.
Non-agricultural activities are expected to expand by 3% in 2026, compared with 3.9% in 2025, before accelerating to around 4% in 2027, supported by stronger industrial activity, continued major investment projects and sustained growth in the services sector.
The secondary sector, including manufacturing, construction and energy, is projected to record modest growth of 1.1% in 2026, before accelerating to 3.7% in 2027. Meanwhile, the services sector is expected to remain resilient, growing by 3.9% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027, reinforcing its role as a key contributor to Morocco’s economic expansion.
The HCP stresses that the anticipated slowdown in 2027 would not reflect a broad weakening of the economy but rather the expected decline in agricultural output following the exceptional performance projected for 2026. At the same time, industrial and service activities are expected to strengthen and provide greater support to economic growth.
The report also forecasts nominal GDP growth of 6.8% in 2026, easing to 4.5% in 2027, while the GDP deflator is expected to reach 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively. The economic outlook is expected to serve as a key reference for policymakers and economic stakeholders, particularly in the preparation of Morocco’s 2027 Finance Bill.